New Orleans births declined by 25% between 2014 and 2024 and this has translated into a direct loss of students in our classrooms.
Between 2019 and 2025, the number of K-8 students enrolled in Orleans Parish public schools dropped from 34,007 to 29,793—a reduction of more than 4,200 children.1
This isn’t just a local trend; across the nation and the world, birth rates are hitting historic lows. For example, South Korea’s fertility rate has plummeted to roughly 0.75, a third of the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable society.2 Closer to home, the U.S. fertility rate fell to an all-time low of 1.6 in 2024.3
A National Wave of School Consolidations
Districts across the country are being forced to merge or close campuses, including:
- Jefferson Parish: Consolidated several schools in 2024, including Grace King and Helen Cox High.
- Baton Rouge: Currently enacting a plan to close 9 schools.
- Austin: Will close 10 schools in 2026.
- San Antonio: Shuttered 15 schools in 2024.
- Jackson: Has closed or consolidated 13 schools since 2024.
- Denver: Closed 7 schools in 2024 and restructured 3 in 2025.
New Orleans must do the same…and soon.
The Financial Reality of “Empty Seats”
Our K-8 schools are currently grappling with 2,000 to 3,000 empty seats. When a school is under-enrolled, it creates a structural deficit. The Leah Chase school’s recent deficit was driven not by any financial mismanagement or over-spending, but under-enrollment.
Let’s take a closer look at how under-enrollment impacts school finances with a simplified example in which we assume open enrollment K8 schools average around $15,000 per student, including state, local and federal funds.
Suppose there are 7 schools that would be fully enrolled at 700 students but are all under-enrolled by 100 students. Each of these schools has 600 students and receives $9,000,000 in funding.
If one of these schools were to close and each of the remaining 6 enrolled 100 more students, they would each receive $1,500,000 of additional funding. However, the cost of adding these additional 100 students would be significantly less than $1,500,000 because:
- There is no cost to fill empty seats in classrooms that already have a teacher;
- The administrative staff is already in place;
- The building occupancy costs (insurance, utilities, maintenance, grounds, custodial) remain the same;
- The increase in cost is mostly focused on adding teachers and paraprofessionals to serve more special education students and some increased transportation costs—the total cost would likely be no more than $500,000.
The bottom line: Fully enrolled, these six schools would each have about $1,000,000—$1,400 per student—in additional funding to spend.
These additional dollars would allow the school to provide the supports and opportunities our students deserve—things like additional extracurricular and specialized course options, staff to support mental health needs (social workers and counselors), and much-needed teacher pay-raises to allow our best teachers to stay in the classroom longer.
Why We Must Act Now
For the past few years, pandemic-era federal funding and rising local revenues masked the financial pressure of declining enrollment. Those buffers are gone. This year, many schools have been forced to cut staff and spend money from their reserves to maintain sufficient supports for their students. This is not sustainable. And the outlook for 2026 is even more challenging.
Revenues will plateau or decline while expenses continue to rise:
- State Funding: It is unlikely the state will be a source of new money. It has not increased the base per-pupil amount of $4,055 since 2019. (Adjusted for inflation, it should be $5,227 today.4)
- Local Sales Tax: The city expects a 2.5–3% reduction in sales tax revenue compared to 2025, a total decline of 6.8% since 2024. (See below.5)
- Property Tax: The recent fire sale of some landmark hotels suggest future assessments may be lower.
Without a plan to consolidate 3 to 4 schools very soon—and likely 3 to 4 more over the next five years—our schools will be forced to cut “to the bone.” This means losing social workers, art, music, and academic supports.
Academic achievement and student well-being will suffer.
Our Challenge as a City
How do we support the NOLA -PS in confecting a plan? Inaction will force too many of our schools to sink from the weight of empty seats. No one wants to see a neighborhood school close its doors, but there is not a silver bullet that makes this problem go away. Fewer students = fewer schools. And as fewer babies are born, the problem will only get worse.
The Superintendent and the school board need to spearhead a process where various opinions are heard, options weighed and then adopt a set of criteria to guide their decisions on consolidation. Now is the time to begin this incredibly difficult task so we can continue to have thriving schools and thriving classrooms.
Sources
1CDC WONDER Natality Statistics; 2024 LDOE 10/1 Multi-Stats, includes all public schools and sites located in Orleans Parish (Type 2s, etc.).
2Korea Ministry of Data & Statistics.
3Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
4Calculated based on the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which estimates a cumulative inflation rate of approximately 28.9%.
5New Orleans Revenue Estimating Conference
